Investing in Conflict Management*
نویسندگان
چکیده
Achieving peace and building the institutions that will make it last require much time and e¤ort on the part of adversaries. While making this e¤ort, the likelihood of peace is uncertain and preparations forcon‡ict are on-going. We examine a setting that takes such considerations into account. Adversaries divide their resources between “guns,”“butter,” and investments in con‡ict management. Even when all adversaries undertake sizable investments in con‡ict management, peace is uncertain. We ...nd that larger initial wealth increases the likelihood of peace, whereas the number of adversaries can have widely di¤erent e¤ects. A larger number of adversaries in cases of international con‡ict tends to increase the likelihood of peace, but it has the opposite e¤ect in cases of domestic con‡ict.
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